What Next for Boris Johnson?

 The Prime Minister has been in apparent mortal danger since the emergence of Partygate stories. However, thanks to a recent favourable intervention by the Metropolitan Police (which my libel lawyer tells me I am not allowed to call a cover-up), it would appear he is safe. But, is all hope of justice being done lost? Well…

During the May administration, a series of complex votes in Parliament, the frenetic mood changes of key MPs, and the various possible confidence votes, led to a wide range of possible outcomes, analysed by many pundits in flowcharts. I was something of an expert on this - at peak I would address rooms of 40 people all wondering what had gone on and what might happen next. And by creating and studying these flowcharts, I was able to explain. Now, since Boris faces a slightly simpler, albeit more dire, situation than Theresa May, there is perhaps no need for a flowchart, but the same logic can be applied to look at possible next steps.

The Sue Gray report is a good place to start for this. Set to be published early next week, the Gray report was originally set to contain damning evidence of criminal activity, so damning in fact that Gray contacted the police herself to hand over evidence of crimes. After meetings between the Metropolitan Police and the government, the Met announced that Gray MUST publish a substantially redacted form of her document, lest she prejudice the police investigation. This seems odd; the police and allies of Boris meet, then the police announce that key evidence of Boris’ crimes that was due to be made public must be kept quiet. But the upshot is that it takes the sting out of the Gray report for Boris, probably. What this means is that, probably, it does not compel 54 Conservative MPs to put in letters calling for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. But it also might.

The next barrier for Boris is the police investigation. The only legal basis the police might have for asking Gray to publish a substantially redacted report is if the contents of the report pertain to things that the police believe will come up in a jury trial, in which case publishing fully would be contempt of court. However, breaching the Coronavirus Act is not a crime that leads to a jury trial - it is instead a crime with a fixed penalty notice settled at a Magistrates’ Court. So it is possible that the Gray report uncovered evidence of other crimes, which is why she contacted the police. Either that or a cover-up. If other crimes have been committed, then it is likely that the 54 MP threshold for a confidence vote will be met. There is also a level of thinking which leads to a confidence vote even if the police report goes relatively easy on the Prime Minister - if MPs believe it is a whitewash that will go down very poorly with their constituents, then they could be inclined to get rid of Boris to protect their own jobs.

In the event of a vote of no confidence, it is likely Boris will win it. Only 54 MPs need to turn against him for a confidence vote to be initiated, however 180 need to for Boris to lose a confidence vote. And while there is talk of substantial anger in the Party over all of this mess, all current Conservative MPs, bar those who won by-elections since the last general election, have signed a letter of personal loyalty to him, or at least agreed to back his Brexit deal, so it will not be easy to break support when he stuffed every winnable seat with raving sycophants. The media is full of talk of secret ballots and how big hitters could vote against him and nobody would ever know, but it seems so unlikely that people who seem to genuinely love Boris would break ranks like that.

There is, however, still hope Boris might go, and indeed hope in Boris being kept as leader of the Conservative Party. As long as he is leader, the Party are complete electoral poison, and Labour will sweep this May’s local elections. If that happens, then perhaps there will be further movements to make Boris resign, such as the triggering of a confidence vote at this point, or, if a confidence vote has already occurred, a change of the rules to allow a second confidence vote sooner. But, if Boris is kept until a general election, then Labour really have hit the jackpot. This is nothing Conservatives don’t already know, but it really does seem like they are willing to forfeit power for a generation in order to keep one man in a job he cannot do for two more years.

There could, of course, be some curveballs that derail this entire line. For example, Boris could resign of his own accord after narrowly winning a confidence vote, after the police report, or after the Gray report. Senior members of cabinet might resign, triggering a no confidence vote or Boris’ resignation. There could be a Parliamentary no confidence vote brought by the opposition, in which the government would clearly win, but if there were more than two or three Tory rebels the government would be in real trouble. Evidence of crimes more serious than breaches of the Coronavirus Act could emerge, as could a litany of other scandals. Or, another possibility given the war clouds gathering on the edge of Europe is that a much larger story comes along, and in a fortnight we are all talking about something else.