Putin's Final Gamble

 A thermobaric weapon uses oxygen from the air, rather than pure oxygen in a cell, as fuel for detonation. Conventional explosives consist of around 25% fuel and 75% oxidiser by weight, but thermobaric weapons are 100% fuel, making them around four times more powerful than conventional explosives by weight. However, what makes thermobaric weapons so dangerous is the way in which they kill their victims. Of course, they have the same effects as normal explosives; victims might burn to death or be crushed by debris, but the pressure wave created by sucking the oxygen from the air can rupture lungs and eardrums and cause blindness - but crucially it is very unlikely to make the victim fall unconscious. This means that many deaths from thermobaric weapons occur by suffocation of a fully conscious victim who has had both lungs ruptured.

Thermobaric weapons were used by the USA in Vietnam, and were considered so cruel that they have not ever been subsequently used by any country since other than the Soviet Union and later Russia - most recently against civilians in the Syrian city of Aleppo. Footage has emerged on social media in the past few days allegedly showing two thermobaric weapons being transported by Russian troops into Ukraine.

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On day 4 of the fighting in Ukraine it is already clear that Putin has failed. Ukrainian resistance has been considerably stronger than expected, which can be attributed to a number of factors:

1. Putin would not put the Russian economy onto a total war footing, throwing every person and resource he has at the invasion of Ukraine - so while the Russian military is taking action, back in Russia itself things are essentially normal. Meanwhile, Ukraine of course has had no choice but to put itself on a total war footing, so they are throwing every person, every resource, they have at this war. This means that, despite Russia being the obviously larger military power, the fight in Ukraine is relatively evenly matched.

2. Morale has a surprisingly substantial effect on military outcomes. Ukrainian morale is very high - after all they know they are fighting for the continued survival of their nation. Russian morale could scarcely be lower, as unsupplied barrages of teenage conscripts are sent to face machine gun fire as cannon fodder in a war they despise.

3. Ukraine has had substantial help from its allies - indeed nearly every Western country except the UK has provided considerably more support than expected to Ukraine, and placed Russia under considerably harsher sanctions than expected. Even Russia’s allies in Europe, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, eventually came down on the side of the EU and NATO. Meanwhile, Russia has been effectively abandoned by its allies, specifically China, which has criticised the Russian war effort and abstained on a UN vote about the conflict rather than siding with Russia.

Russia’s failure cannot entirely be blamed on the factors above, which contribute to Ukrainian resistance being stronger than expected. The other side of the coin is the complete strategic failure of Russian military leaders. Since the war began 4 days ago, already Russia has sent troop-carrying aircraft (actual passenger-type planes for troops, not fighter jets) into contested airspace, which naturally led to them being shot down. Footage also emerged of Russian tanks broken down, having run out of fuel just a few miles from the Russian border. Even before the Russians decisively lost at Kharkiv this morning, it was estimated that they have already lost 4,300 troops, the same number that the US lost in the entire Iraq war. Ukraine still controls almost every key city in the country, including Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol. At some point, Russian conventional forces will not be able to keep losing any longer.

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Usually, a dictator starts a shocking war against a smaller country or island because their domestic situation is bad enough that their position is at risk and winning a quick war will make them popular among their people again. This was the thinking of Leopoldo Galtieri, when he invaded the Falkland Islands, expecting the UK to not intervene. Of course, the UK did get involved, and Argentina lost almost as decisively as the Russians are losing now, and Galtieri was ousted just days after the Argentine surrender. Putin did not have a difficult domestic situation to shore up, he is instead just mad and old and wanting to go down in history (or at least that is according to an article in today’s Financial Times, claiming that Putin is now more isolated than Stalin was in 1953 - a man who was so hated by his people that when he had a heart attack he died because no doctor would treat him). Now Putin does have a domestic situation to control as a pointless war against Ukraine waged by teenage conscripts turns out to not be popular after all. And, on top of that, he is losing. Putin is surely completely aware that his position has never been in more danger.

So, what does he do now? Put the Russian economy on a total war footing, sending hundreds of thousands of troops into Ukraine to crush all of its forces? Without the threat of an invasion, the necessary legislation for this still has to go through proper channels such as the Kremlin and Putin’s close advisors and his bureaucrats, so that could be too slow (on the timescale of weeks before even the first renationalised factories would be producing new weapons). Instead, he has other, unthinkable options to force a quick victory in Ukraine.

The reason the use of a thermobaric weapon in Aleppo did not generate the outrage you might expect is because it was not known about until a long time after it happened. A thermobaric weapon dropped on Kyiv would be known about immediately and lead to much more of a response. And of course, Putin has weapons more powerful still than thermobaric weapons. What would happen if Putin has realised that he needs to force the Ukrainians to surrender no matter what, so uses a nuclear weapon on Kharkiv or Mariupol? A Ukrainian surrender? Or World War 3?

Putin has one last throw of the dice. We can only hope he never uses it.